The Risk Today:

EurUsd Yesterday's concern over the downtrending RSI turned out to be of great importance as the pair failed to move higher with any conviction and sellers stepped in, taking advanta

ge of the poor technical set up for the bulls. Since then we have now moved back into the range bound territory between 1.4111 / 38 and 1.4240 and are now looking at the inverse picture of yesterday with bullish RSI divergence on the 60 minute chart

(13:00 European Time). We mentioned last week a sweet spot for longs at 1.4051 which should see huge bids from the longer term players if reached, but for now expect range bound trading between the two levels, 1.4111 as a floor and 1.4240 as a ceiling. 1.43387 remains the key level to be broken on the up

side.

GbpUsd At la

st cable received some long overdue action and the bears took advantage of the 2 year downtrend p

ressure at 1.6600 sending the pair to

the lower range support at 1.6381 (day low of 1.6390). After a solid bounce in Asian trading up to 1.6467 the pair is now testing the 1.6381 level once again which coincides with the 2 week uptrend channel. Stochastics and RSI on the 60 minute are over sold at 24.6 and 38.8 respectively so the level should hold intraday with first resistance at 1.6435 and 1.6437 thereafter. A break of the 1.6381 support and uptrend could send the pair to 1.6272 in quick fashion.

UsdJpy A similar set up on USD JPY where the long term downtrend and resistance was becoming laborious. However, after looking like we would test 93.86 the pair showed intraday bullish RSI divergence this morning whilst simultaneously approaching the 3 week uptrend and in turn sent it in a straight line through all resistance towards the major failure level of yesterday at 95.29. Expect MAJOR intraday resistance at that level with intraday momentum indicators getting overbought and a flurry of selling from those caught in the pair from yesterday. Medium term the trend remains up so keep an eye on 94.447 as a long entry.

UsdChf We mentioned yesterday the bulls should find some comfort in the range moving up a level and the range bound action has now diminished on an intraday basis with the pair breaking higher to the major resistance at 1.0817. There is a whole heap of noise between 1.0817 and 1.0891 and looking at this newly established 7 day uptrend 1.0817 also marks the top of that move. Short sellers anticipated to show the hands at this level on the first sign of weakness and support from the bulls can be expected back down at 1.0707 and 1.0739.